Okay, so today I wanted to figure out what a 12-team college football playoff might look like. I’ve seen some projections online, but I wanted to do it myself, my way.
Getting Started
First, I needed the current rankings. I just went with the latest AP Poll, because, well, it’s easy to find. I grabbed those top 25 teams, no problem.
Figuring Out the Matchups
Next, I had to figure out how a 12-team playoff would actually work. From memory, I think the top four conference champions get a bye, the rest are at-large, that sort of stuff. Then, seeds 5-12 play each other in the first round.
- Seeds 5 vs 12
- Seeds 6 vs 11
- Seeds 7 vs 10
- Seeds 8 vs 9
I took my list of teams and manually matched them up based on their ranking. This took a little bit of thinking, making sure I followed the basic rules as I understood them.
Simulating the First Round (in My Head)
With the matchups set, I started thinking about who would actually win those first-round games. This is totally subjective, of course. No fancy algorithms here, just my gut feeling based on how teams have been playing. I pictured each game in my head, thought about key players, recent performance, and potential upsets.
The Top 4 and Round 2
Remember those top 4 teams? They got a bye, so they’re automatically in the second round. Now, I needed to match them up with my “winners” from the first round. Again, based on seeding, highest remaining seed plays the lowest, and so on. More mental gymnastics!
And So On…
From there, I just kept going. Imagined the second-round games, picked winners, and matched them up again. Did this all the way until I had my “champion.” It’s all just for fun, a thought experiment, really.
My (Totally Unofficial) Results
I went through that whole process, and my final projection had Georgia beating Michigan for the championship. I am completely confident about this result, although it’s just my personal thought. The whole thing was pretty interesting. Of course, it’s all speculation, but it gives you a decent idea of what a 12-team playoff could look like in practice.