Woke up this morning scrolling through the La Liga schedule on my phone with coffee, noticed Alaves vs Real Sociedad coming up. Thought “hey, this mid-table clash actually has juice” cause Sociedad’s chasing European spots while Alaves fights relegation scraps. Grabbed my laptop still in pajamas, crumbs on the keyboard – you know how it is.
First Dig into Team Forms
Cracked open recent match reports first. Checked Sociedad’s last five: lost to Real Madrid (duh), but smashed Cadiz 2-0 before that. Alaves? Oof. Three losses in a row against Betis, Atletico, and Girona – all gave ’em a proper thrashing. Made mental note: Sociedad’s defense ain’t leaking much lately.
Head-to-Head Hunting
Dug through their past meetings. Found:
- Last December’s clash: Sociedad won 3-0 like slicing butter
- Four of their last five encounters ended with Sociedad smashing two+ goals
- Alaves hasn’t beaten ’em at home since 2018 – bad juju there
Started leaning toward Sociedad but needed more proof.
Injury Drama Check
Went rabbit-hole diving on team news. Sociedad’s Mikel Oyarzabal out – big blow. But Andre Silva’s back training, might sub in. Alaves? Nah, no major injuries. Knew Silva’s presence could tip scoring chances, wrote that down in my prediction draft with big asterisks.
Home/Road Splits Reality Check
Looked deeper:
- Alaves home record: pathetic three wins all season
- Sociedad away: only one loss in five road games
Scratched my head thinking “how’s Alaves gonna break through that?” Their xG (expected goals) stats looked as sad as my dead houseplant.
Final Prediction Tug-of-War
Stared at my messy notes:
- Sociedad stronger form ✅
- History favors them ✅
- Alaves can’t score ❌
Made the call: 1-3 Sociedad win. Figured Silva or Sadiq bags one early, Alaves scrambles for a consolation header late. Almost picked under 2.5 goals but remembered their last three meetings averaged four – tossed that idea.
Posted it on my blog with a shrug. Would bet my last beer money on Sociedad, but stranger things have happened in football – like that time Lewandowski scored five in nine minutes. If Alaves pulls an upset, I’ll eat my prediction notes with salsa.